2025 Year in Review
Posted by [email protected] on Dec. 9, 2025 / Subscribe 0
By Angela Rose
Since 2023, InsideMFG has forecast the year ahead with ‘5 Sure Bets.’ After a solid year in ‘24, 2025 ‘twas more misses than hits.
Here was the 2025 forecast, and today’s scorecard:
#1 | U.S. manufacturing employment surges past 13 million for the first time since November 2008.
Miss: Manufacturing employment has remained stuck at roughly 12.7 million employees.
Tariff-fueled uncertainty weighed on small and middle-market manufacturers in 2025, forcing many to delay or cancel investments in people. Let' s hope for tariff certainty in ‘26 – but as operating budgets are being finalized as we read, it’s more likely a ‘25 hiring hangover will persist into the year. (We’ll forecast ‘26 in the weeks ahead).
#2 | U.S. contract manufacturers grab the spotlight.
Neutral, lean to Miss: InsideMFG wrote that, “U.S. brands turn to co-mans to reshore, innovate, and recapture their American-made chops.” Yes, but data from the Reshore Initiative suggest that announced-jobs slowed in ‘25 – even as the general trend to reshore jobs remains popular.
#3 | Intel leans into Foundry Services.
Hit: The forecast said that “Voices fret" that Intel’s board will fully outsource production to new TSMC fabs and others, but a gift of $8.5 billion U.S. taxpayer dollars ensures it continues its legacy as an advanced manufacturer.” The Trump Administration's $10B lifeline was one of several deals that ensure the US will continue to have a home-grown chip manufacturer.
#4 | Tariffs are here to stay and gloom forecasts are overblown.
Miss: The quote: “President Trump’s tariff threats are a negotiating ploy — and his trade team builds on Robert Lighthizer’s pro-manufacturing vision in Trump II. Call us optimists.” Yes, tariffs are here to stay and forecasts of tariff-related inflation were overblow. That hit was overwhelmed by stagnant job growth, layoffs in many cases, and lingering uncertainty.
#5 | Space X flies too close to the sun.
Miss: Space X is indeed “The world’s most consequential manufacturer may as well be an emerging nation-state”, but the forecast that “Musk hits a speed-bump in ‘25 as lawmakers fret about national security — like here,” was a miss. No speed bump here.
Stay tuned for the 2026 5 Sure Bets.
Angela Rose is editor of InsideMFG
0 Comments